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From the Editor’s Desk
What will the second Trump presidency mean for founders and early-stage technology companies?
To explore this question, we spoke with Grace Koh, who advised President Trump at the White House on innovation and technology during his first term. Koh emphasized a central guiding principle: past is present. If you want to understand what a second Trump term might mean for the tech sector, start by looking at what he did in the first. Here are four key takeaways from our conversation, with reference to public reporting:
- Personnel is Policy
- Choices for personnel reflect policy priorities and in turn reinforce them as government officials advance their own objectives. Key Trump technology appointees from the first term may return, shaping strategy for emerging technologies such as 5G and IoT.
- For example, Michael Kratsios served as White House CTO in the first term, during which he spearheaded initiatives on AI. He is now leading tech policy for the Trump Transition Team.
- FCC member Brendan Carr, who was first appointed to the FCC in 2017, will be nominated by Trump to serve as FCC Chair. He is advocating for regulatory authority over the hyperscale tech platforms, or in his words, the “censorship cartel.” Given the FCC’s purview over broadcasting and internet, this would mark a major shift in tone towards Silicon Valley.
- Other appointees are newer to the Trump orbit and have strong agendas. For instance, Paul Atkins was recently nominated as Chair of the SEC and is expected to be friendlier to the cryptocurrency industry than his predecessor.
- Competition with China
- The Trump administration will likely double down on export controls, tariffs, and industrial policies aimed at countering China's technology advances. Founders in areas like semiconductors and quantum computing should anticipate tightened regulations and scrutiny. On the flip side, they may also benefit from government support for reshoring manufacturing.
- Deregulating AI
- Expect a hands-off approach when it comes to AI, especially as compared to the Biden Administration. This could create opportunities for startups by reducing compliance burdens, though states like California may step in with their own rules, creating a patchwork regulatory landscape.
- Technology-Driven Government Efficiency
- The DOGE initiative to modernize federal operations could open doors for GovTech companies deploying AI and software to replace personnel and cut costs. However, discretionary spending cuts in future budgets might impact funding for innovation, broadband subsidies, and other programs that generally support the technology sector.
Two other big, open questions are immigration and antitrust. Trump’s longstanding stance on immigration suggests he may pull back on H1B visas, which could have significant implications for the talent pipelines for tech startups. It isn’t clear how FTC and DOJ will approach antitrust under a second Trump administration, whether they will maintain their current aggressive stance or shift direction. It is worth noting that the current DOJ suit against Google started under Trump.
Lastly, there is “first buddy” Elon Musk. Musk has substantial business interests across the automotive, space, and AI industries, and may use his position of influence to shape regulations or other government actions to preference his companies over those of his competitors.
Market Momentum
We invested in Clipbook. Clipbook is an AI research and analysis platform supporting communications & public affairs teams across business, nonprofits, and government. Clipbook serves over 200 organizations, including the Atlanta Braves, Weber Shandwick (world's 2nd largest PR firm), the City of New York, the Gates Foundation, and the State of Arizona. Check out this clip from a recent webinar with Dan Pfeiffer (Pod Save America, prev. White House Communications Director). You can reach CEO Adam Joseph on LinkedIn or at adam@clipbook.io.
Astranis, led by Commonweal advisor John Gedmark, won a design contract from the US Space Force for a constellation of backup GPS satellites. The estimated impact of a disruption to the Global Positioning System $1 billion per day… so a backup seems like a great idea! The total program will be worth $2 billion, once it has gone from the design phase into full production and launch. Three other companies are in the running: Axient, L3 Harris and Sierra Space. Read more here.
Halcyon raised a $100 million Series C at a $1 billion valuation, led by Evolution Equity Partners with participation from Bain Capital Ventures, SYN Ventures, Harmony Partners, Dropbox Ventures, and ServiceNow Ventures. They built a enterprise ransomware platform for prevention, response, and recovery. Over $1B was extorted from companies in 2023, not including lost productivity and repairs. Read more here.
Radiant raised a $100 million Series C led by DCVC with participation from Felicis, Washington Harbour Partners, Also Capital, and Chevron Technology Ventures. They are building 1-megawatt nuclear microreactors, sized to replace diesel generators. Radiant intends to be testing their reactors at Idaho National Laboratory within 2 years. Read more here.
Inversion Space raised $44 million from Spark Capital, Adjacent, Lockheed Martin Ventures, and YC to build autonomous re-entry vehicles to deliver cargo from space. They have three use cases so far: 1) one-hour delivery anywhere in the world, 2) reusable satellites as a service (in-space hardware testing, science experiments, etc.), and 3) space station resupply. Read more here.
TailorMed raised $40 million from Windham Capital Partners, Citi Impact Fund, Samsung Next, Providence Ventures, OSF Healthcare, Inception Health, Ballad Ventures, UH Ventures, and UnityPoint Health Ventures to help connect healthcare patients with financial aid resources for their medical costs. Read more here.
Anduril was awarded a 5-year program of record and $99 million Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract by the US Space Force for Lattice, Anduril’s data platform that feeds different types of sensors into one shared environment for operators to visualize and make decisions. Read more here.
Palantir and Rio Tinto (2nd largest mining + metals company in the world) recently announced an expansion of their tech partnership to new use cases including autonomous train operations and geotechnical risk monitoring in Rio Tinto’s extensive cave mines. Read more here.
Talk Around Town
Atomic Canyon, a Commonweal portfolio company, announced a deal with PG&E in California to provide AI-powered enterprise software for managing the information systems and maintenance operations for nuclear reactors at the Diablo Canyon Plant. Read more in Reuters and Utility Dive.
Chris Brown, who leads NVIDIA’s Inception program for startups, sat down with our managing partner, Nate, for an episode of Political Capital. Watch it on Youtube or listen on Spotify + Apple Podcasts.
Commonweal Advisors in the Media
Anthony Foxx, who served as Secretary of Transportation under President Obama, was interviewed in Politico about advice for the incoming administration.
Neil Chatterjee, who served as Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under President Trump, was quoted in the Washington Post on AI’s effects on US climate goals.
Jim Connaughton, who previously ran President Bush’s White House Council on Environmental Quality, was quoted in Politico on the state of global climate conferences.
Bob Inglis, previously a Republican representative from South Carolina, was quoted in the Hill on carbon border tariffs.
Stan Meiburg, previously the Deputy Administrator for the EPA under President Obama, was quoted in Wired on the ways the incoming Trump Administration could increase fossil fuel production.
New Additions to the Commonweal Team
We added to our advisory board Steve Adler, former Mayor of Austin, Texas.
